While 2021 is an off-year for much of the country, we still have plenty of exciting races to watch on Tuesday. The biggest action will be in Virginia, where Democrats are hoping to keep their hard-won gains in this onetime swing state by holding the governorship, House of Delegates, and other statewide posts. We also have several important contests in major cities and counties across the country, as well as statewide elections in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday’s most interesting and competitive contests, organized by poll closing times. Please note that all times are Eastern. All mayoral races discussed below are for four-year terms unless otherwise noted.
7 p.m. ET: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia
• FL-20: Veteran Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April, spawning a very crowded Democratic primary to succeed him in South Florida’s safely blue 20th District. Whoever wins a plurality of the vote will have no trouble in the Jan. 11 special election, which Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis scheduled to take place nine months after Hastings’ death, effectively doubling the length the seat will remain vacant compared to other recent Florida specials.
The field includes five sitting elected officials: state Sen. Perry Thurston; state Reps. Bobby DuBose and Omari Hardy; and Broward County Commissioners Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief. The top spender by far, though, is businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who badly lost primary challenges to Hastings in both 2018 and 2020 but is pouring millions of her own money into her latest campaign. There’s been very little outside spending, though, and there’s no polling to indicate which candidate might be favored.
• Hialeah, FL Mayor: Five candidates are competing in the officially nonpartisan open-seat race to lead the conservative Miami-area community of Hialeah, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, a runoff will take place Nov. 16.
Steve Bovo, a former Miami-Dade County commissioner who lost last year’s general election for county mayor, has the backing of Donald Trump and other Florida Republican bigwigs like Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Marco Rubio, and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. Bovo’s main foe appears to be a fellow conservative, former City Council President Isis Garcia-Martinez. The two have agreed on most issues, though Garcia-Martinez has emphasized her disapproval with DeSantis’ lax handling of the pandemic.
• St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: Rick Kriseman’s 2013 victory made him the first Democrat to hold St. Petersburg’s officially nonpartisan mayoralty in decades, and it looks like his party will hang on to the post now that Kriseman is termed out. Former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch, who would be the city’s first Black mayor, outpaced Republican City Councilman Robert Blackmon 39-28 in the August primary, and recent numbers from St. Pete Polls show the Democrat ahead 55-39.
• Atlanta, GA Mayor: Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms shocked Atlanta in May when she announced she wouldn’t seek a second term, prompting several fellow Democrats to launch campaigns to succeed her in the city’s nonpartisan primary. In the all-but-certain event that no one wins a majority in this crowded race, a runoff will take place Nov. 30.
The most prominent candidate is former Mayor Kasim Reed, who was termed out of office four years ago but is now free to run again. However, while he easily won his second term in 2013, his rivals have argued he should take responsibility for a huge corruption scandal that has resulted in the indictment and conviction of several Reed administration officials. (Reed’s attorneys say that federal prosecutors told them their client is no longer a target of their investigations.)
The field also includes City Council President Felicia Moore and self-funding attorney Sharon Gay, who were both running against Bottoms before she retired, as well as City Councilmen Andre Dickens and Antonio Brown—who, like Reed, entered the race after the mayor said she’d depart. Most polls conducted during the summer showed Reed and Moore advancing to a runoff, but there’s little recent data.
• Manchester, NH Mayor: Mayor Joyce Craig, the Democrat who leads the most populous city in swingy New Hampshire, faces a rematch against former state Rep. Victoria Sullivan, her Republican opponent from 2019, in her quest for a third two-year term as mayor of Manchester. Craig beat Sullivan 57-43 two years ago, an outcome that closely mirrored the results of that year’s nonpartisan primary, but things could be closer this time: Craig led with 52% in the September primary, while Sullivan and another Republican scored a combined 47%.
• VA-Gov: The Old Dominion is the only state left that bars governors from seeking a second consecutive term, so as we do every four years, we once again have a closely watched open-seat race for Virginia’s top job. Joe Biden’s 54-44 victory last year gave Democrats lots of optimism about former Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s prospects of regaining his old job, but almost every poll shows him locked in a tight race against his Republican foe, self-funder Glenn Youngkin.
Youngkin has focused heavily on attacking McAuliffe over schools, while the ex-governor has sought to link his opponent to Donald Trump. A McAuliffe victory in the race to succeed Gov. Ralph Northam would give Team Blue its third straight term in this office, while Youngkin would be the first Republican to prevail statewide in any race since the 2009 GOP sweep.
• VA-AG, VA-LG: Democrats are trying to hold Virginia’s other two statewide offices as well, and polls likewise find things close. Attorney General Mark Herring, the only incumbent on the statewide ballot, faces a challenge from Republican Del. Jason Miyares in his quest for a third term.
The race for lieutenant governor pits Democratic Del. Hala Ayala against former Del. Winsome Sears, who served one term in the legislature almost two decades ago; either would be the first woman of color elected statewide. This post—which is open because Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax waged an unsuccessful bid for governor—is of particular importance in Virginia because the lieutenant governor can break ties in the state Senate, where Democrats have just a narrow 21-19 advantage (the Senate isn’t up for election again until 2023).
• VA State House: Democrats won control of Virginia’s House of Delegates for the first time in two decades in 2019, but now they need to defend their 55-45 majority. Because the Census Bureau was unable to supply the data needed for redistricting in time, elections for all 100 seats will take place under the same court-ordered map that was first used two years ago. We’ve put together this guide to help you keep track of all the key contests.
7:30 p.m. ET: Ohio
• OH-11, OH-15: Special general elections will take place in two Ohio congressional seats, one held by each party, but there isn’t likely to be much suspense in either race. The Cleveland-area 11th District backed Biden 80-19, and Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown’s come-from-behind win in the August Democratic primary makes her the overwhelming favorite to succeed Marcia Fudge, who resigned to become Biden’s secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
The 15th District, which includes the southern Columbus area and Athens, is nominally more competitive at Trump 56-42, but this gerrymandered district is still very one-sided turf. Aided by a Trump endorsement, coal company lobbyist Mike Carey won the Republican primary to replace Steve Stivers, who left the House to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, and it would be a shock if he were to lose to Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo.
• Cincinnati, OH Mayor: Two Democrats are competing in the nonpartisan race to succeed termed-out Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley: Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval, who lost a competitive 2018 race against Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st Congressional District, and City Councilman David Mann, a longtime local political figure who lost his 1994 bid for re-election to Congress to none other than Chabot. Pureval, who would be the first Asian American to lead the Queen City, outpaced Mann 39-29 in the May primary and earned an endorsement in September from Sen. Sherrod Brown.
• Cleveland, OH Mayor: Incumbent Frank Jackson is retiring after 16 years as mayor of Cleveland and backing City Council President Kevin Kelley as his successor, but Kelley faces a tough contest against a fellow Democrat. Nonprofit head Justin Bibb, who is a first-time candidate, edged out Kelley 27-19 in the September nonpartisan primary and went on to pick up the support of Sen. Sherrod Brown.
8 p.m. ET: Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania
• Boston, MA Mayor: The nonpartisan general election for mayor of Boston is a contest between two city councilors, either of whom would be both the first woman and person of color elected to this post: Michelle Wu, who is campaigning as a progressive, and Annissa Essaibi George, a more moderate contender who is arguing that Wu’s proposals are unrealistic. Wu led Essaibi George 33-22 in September, and a trio of polls released in October gave her massive leads ranging from 25 to 32 points. The election turned into an open-seat affair after Acting Mayor Kim Janey (who assumed the job in March when Mayor Marty Walsh became Biden’s labor secretary) finished fourth in September.
• NJ-Gov: New Jersey’s hosting the only other governor’s race on Tuesday’s ballot, but unlike in Virginia, there isn’t likely to be much suspense. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is facing off against former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in a state Biden won 57-41, and the few polls that have been released have usually shown the incumbent well ahead. Thanks to his allies, Murphy has also enjoyed a huge spending advantage.
• NJ Legislature: Democrats hold a comfortable 52-28 advantage in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the Senate, and there’s no question that Team Blue will keep control in both chambers. There are, however, some competitive races throughout the state. (As in Virginia, the elections are being held under the old district lines due to the delay in receiving census data.) Democrats are trying to flip several North Jersey seats that swung to the left during the Trump era, while the GOP is hoping to hold its own in the suburbs and make gains in constituencies that moved in the opposite direction.
• PA Supreme Court: Democrats have a 5-2 edge on the Supreme Court in swingy Pennsylvania, and they’re trying to flip another seat to expand their majority. Republicans desperately don’t want that to happen, and they’ve poured $3 million to support Kevin Brobson, a judge on the state’s Commonwealth Court. Democrats, likewise, have spent $2 million to aid Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin. In particular, the court has great sway over redistricting: The justices invalidated the GOP’s congressional gerrymander in 2018, and they pick the tiebreaking member of the state’s legislative redistricting commission.
• Bucks County, PA District Attorney & Sheriff: Democrats in the populous battleground of Bucks County, situated in the Philadelphia suburbs, are hoping former prosecutor Antonetta Stancu will unseat District Attorney Matt Weintraub, who is the one Republican left who holds a so-called “row office,” the local name for the countywide offices other than the commissioner.
Republicans, likewise, are targeting the row offices they lost in the historic 2017 Democratic wave, with their most prominent target being the sheriff’s post. That race pits Warrington Township Board of Supervisors member Mark Lomax, who decisively unseated incumbent Milt Warrell in the May Democratic primary, against Fred Harran, the Republican who is Bensalem Township’s director of public safety.
Stancu and Lomax, who have been campaigning together, have both sought to pre-empt GOP attempts to label them as opponents of the police. In one commercial starring the two Democrats, Lomax declared, “We know to fight crime, we must fund the police.” Bucks County has supported the Democratic presidential nominee in every election from 1992 on, but it’s not reliably blue turf further down the ballot: While Biden carried it 52-47, local Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick won both Bucks County and the entire 1st Congressional District 57-43 that same night.
• Erie County, PA Executive: The race to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper in the northwest Pennsylvania county of Erie, which flipped from 48-46 Trump to 50-49 Biden, pits Democrat Tyler Titus against Republican Brenton Davis. Titus, who would be the first trans county executive in American history, has enjoyed a fundraising edge over their opponent.
9 p.m. ET: Minnesota, New Mexico, New York
• Minneapolis, MN Mayor: Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey faces a crowded field of fellow Democrats in a nonpartisan election that will be decided in an instant runoff if no one earns a majority. The incumbent has faced vocal criticism for his handling of the direct fallout of George Floyd’s murder at the hands of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, but he enjoys a big financial advantage over the rest of the field.
Frey’s two most prominent opponents appear to be activist Sheila Nezhad and former state Rep. Kate Knuth. The two both received an endorsement from Rep. Ilhan Omar, the nationally known progressive who represents the entire city in the House, and they’ve each encouraged their supporters to rank the other as their second choice. Also in the running are 2020 City Council candidate AJ Awed and attorney Clint Conner.
The only poll we’ve seen was an ALG Research survey released by a pro-Frey group about a week ahead of the election that showed Frey outpacing Nezhad 44-25, with 10% going to Knuth. The firm then found Frey beating Nezhad 47-27 after simulating the instant runoff process.
• Minneapolis, MN Ballot: Minneapolis voters will also be presented with two ballot questions that could dramatically change how government functions in Minnesota’s largest city. Question 1 would greatly strengthen the mayor’s executive powers by, among other things, “consolidating administrative authority over all operating departments.” Currently, Minneapolis operates under a so-called weak-mayor system, wherein the mayor acts in concert with the city council to run the city.
The more high-profile ballot issue is Question 2, which would replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a Department of Public Safety, and shift more control of the department to the city council. This issue, which seems to have drawn more attention than the mayoral race, has divided high-profile Minnesota Democrats. In support are Rep. Ilhan Omar and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, who argue that the current setup prevents much-needed changes to the police department. Opposing Question 2 are Gov. Tim Walz, Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Mayor Jacob Frey, who say that, while police reform is essential, this plan isn’t the right way to go about it.
• Albuquerque, NM Mayor: Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is hoping to secure the majority of the vote in Tuesday’s nonpartisan race that would allow him to avoid a runoff in his quest to run Albuquerque for a second term.
Keller’s main opponent is Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales, a self-described “strong fiscal conservative” who remains a nominal Democrat. Gonzales has been trying to use the city’s high crime rate—a perennial issue in local politics—to argue that Keller doesn’t deserve re-election. However, Gonzales’ campaign attracted months of negative attention after the city clerk denied him public financing due to suspected fraud. Also in the running is Republican Eddy Aragon, a conservative radio host who has raised little.
A late-September survey, from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling on behalf of the local site The Paper, had Keller just short of a majority at 47%, with Gonzales far back at 21%. A more recent poll from Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, though, had Keller beating the sheriff 53-20.
• NY Ballot: New Yorkers will have the chance to vote on several constitutional amendments concerning elections and voting that were placed on the ballot by the Democratic state legislature. Proposal 1 would reduce the threshold for lawmakers to approve a redistricting plan from a supermajority to a simple majority. Proposal 3 would allow the legislature to create a same-day voter registration law, which Democratic leaders say they’d go forward with if the amendment passes. Proposal 4, finally, would remove the excuse requirement to vote absentee, which was waived temporarily last year due to the pandemic.
• Buffalo, NY Mayor: Activist and nurse India Walton scored a shocking win in the June Democratic primary against four-term Mayor Byron Brown in Buffalo, but Brown is running a well-funded write-in campaign to try to keep his job as leader of New York’s second-largest city.
Walton, a self-described socialist who is the only candidate actually listed on the ballot, is continuing to argue that the incumbent has failed to “make things better” during his long tenure in office. The challenger earned the backing of Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand late in the race, though other high-profile Empire State Democrats, including Gov. Kathy Hochul, have stayed neutral.
Brown, for his part, has aired ads starring police officers claiming that Walton’s plans would result in huge layoffs for the force, a charge she vehemently denies. Brown’s campaign has also focused on Walton’s 2014 arrest after a dispute with a co-worker, which eventually resulted in a judge ordering Walton to stay away from her colleague for six months. Walton has said she was a victim of her co-worker’s bullying.
• Syracuse, NY Mayor: Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh, an independent, faces a two-fold challenge from Democratic nominee Khalid Bey, a longtime member of the Syracuse Common Council, as well as Republican Janet Burman. Biden carried this city 77-21, but Walsh has a huge fundraising advantage over Bey.
• Nassau County, NY District Attorney & Executive: New York Democrats are defending the offices of district attorney and county executive in Nassau County, a populous region on Long Island that backed Biden 54-45 but is often friendly turf for Republicans down the ballot.
The more competitive of the two races appears to be the special D.A. election to succeed Madeline Singas, a Democrat who resigned to join the state’s highest judicial body. Democratic state Sen. Todd Kaminsky, a nephew of comedy legend Mel Brooks, has outraised prosecutor Anne Donnelly, a Republican who has campaigned almost exclusively on her opposition to ending cash bail and other criminal justice reforms. The winner will be up again in 2023.
The contest for executive, meanwhile, is a clash between Democratic incumbent Laura Curran and Hempstead Councilman Bruce Blakeman, a longtime local Republican politico. We haven’t seen any surveys of either race, but state Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said in early October that his internal polling showed Kaminsky only “slightly ahead” even as Curran led by at least 10 points. The local Republican Party seems to agree that the D.A. race is much closer, as it’s sent twice as much money to boost Donnelly as it has for Blakeman.
• Suffolk County, NY District Attorney: While Suffolk County, which gave Trump a 232-vote margin of victory last year, is the more conservative of Long Island’s two counties, the race between Democratic incumbent Timothy Sini and Republican prosecutor Ray Tierney hasn’t attracted nearly as much outside attention as its counterpart next door. Still, Tierney is hoping that his own opposition to bail reform will help him overcome his big cash disadvantage. Sini, for his part, also says he’s against bail reform.
• Staten Island, NY Borough President: Most races in New York City, including the mayoral contest, will be easy wins for the Democrats, but even a very flawed candidate might not be enough to cost the Republicans control of an office they’ve held for three decades. Team Red’s nominee for Staten Island borough president is former Rep. Vito Fossella, a Republican who retired from Congress after the public learned about his secret second family in 2008. The Democrats are fielding Mark Murphy, who unsuccessfully ran for the House in 2012. Also in the running is Conservative Party candidate Leticia Remauro, who lost the June GOP primary.
Fossella only received matching funds from the city just before Election Day after previously being denied them for failing to disclose necessary financial details. Still, despite his high-profile fall over a decade ago, he could be tough to beat in a borough that supported Trump 57-42.
11 p.m. ET: Washington
• Seattle, WA Mayor: With Mayor Jenny Durkin not seeking a second term in deep-blue Seattle, the nonpartisan general election to replace her pits two major political factions against one another. Former City Council President Bruce Harrell is close to business interests, while most labor endorsements have gone to his successor, Lorena González.
Harrell edged out González by a small 34-32 margin in August, but most polls have given him a decided edge heading into the general election. González also had to pull a commercial in the final week of the campaign that accused her opponent of having “repeatedly sided with abusers.” Harrell, who is Black, argued the spot deployed racist stereotypes about him and disputed the facts behind the commercial.
• King County, WA Executive: King County Executive Dow Constantine faces state Sen. Joe Nguyen, a fellow Democrat, in the nonpartisan race to lead King County, Washington’s most populous county and the home of Seattle. Nguyen has argued that the county’s leaders had been too slow to deal with vital issues like racial wealth gaps, criminal justice reform, and homelessness. The incumbent, though, outpaced Nguyen 52-33 in the August primary.
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