On Tuesday evening, Iraq directed a series of missiles at two bases in Iraq that play host to U.S. forces. But while at least 10 missiles hit in or near the Ain al-Asad and Erbil air bases, neither U.S. nor Iraqi commanders on the ground have reported any casualties from the attack. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian passenger plane leaving Tehran crashed shortly after takeoff, killing 176 passengers and crew. It’s not yet known how, or if, this is related to the military actions overnight.
That there were no casualties resulting from the missile strike may be deliberate. MSNBC reported that Iranian state television described the attacks as under the personal direction of Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei, while CNN speculates that the sites were chosen specifically because they are “vast and remote,” with a lot of empty space. If true, this would suggest that Iran’s action was more symbolic than an attempt to generate U.S. casualties. Khamenei spoke to enthusiastic crowds in Tehran to report the Iranian action, while Iran’s foreign minister tweeted that the strikes were proportional, and indicated that they represented the whole of Iran’s response to the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. He announced that Iraq would not seek any escalation. However, Politico reports that, later in the evening, Khamenei declared that the apparently bloodless strike was “not enough,” and hinted at other action to drive the U.S. from not just Iraq but the Middle East.
At the same time that Khamenei was speaking to crowds in Tehran, Donald Trump was issuing a tweet declaring, “All’s well!” Trump is expected to address the nation on Wednesday morning, but a time for this address has not been set. Meanwhile, a succession of hosts and guests on Fox News, including Trump favorites such as Sean Hannity, were loudly calling for retaliation against Iran.
The plane that crashed outside Tehran was a Ukraine International Airlines 737 on its way to Kyiv. About half of those on board were Iranians, but there was also a large contingent of Canadians. Early reporting has described the cause of the crash as “technical difficulties,” and it’s unclear whether any military action by forces on any side of the complex situation may have been involved.
The message from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif seems to suggest that Iran is offering Trump something of an off ramp at this point. Both sides have a chance to step back, claim victory, and de-escalate. However, it’s unclear whether the statements from Khamenei indicate that Iran may yet carry out further actions, perhaps using more indirect means. It’s also unclear whether Trump will resist the call for retaliation that seems to be nearly universal on the right.
Source: http://feeds.dailykosmedia.com/~r/dailykosofficial/~3/O1g2_iJv1H0/-After-night-in-which-Iran-fired-missiles-at-bases-in-Iraq-the-war-may-be-over-or-just-beginning