Nine points is the widest lead since September 2017, in the wake of Republican attempts to eliminate the Affordable Care Act.
The Democratic advantage for most of this 2020 cycle has hovered around 6-7 points, which is exactly where Civiqs tracking left off in the 2018 version of this question. That November 2018, Civiqs spotted Democrats a 50-44 lead, or six points. The final result was 53.4—44.8, or 8.6 points. In other words, three-fourths of the 4% who were “unsure” landed with Democrats.
Things look even more dire for Republicans right now. The 51-42 Democratic advantage is wider than that final 50-44 spread in 2018, and Republicans are in worse shape with key constituencies.
Among men, the base of the Republican Party base, Republicans hold a 49-44 advantage. That’s a net four points worse than in 2018 when they ended the cycle at 52-43 in Civiqs polling. Meanwhile, women are just as anti-Republican today as they were in 2018: 57-36 now versus 57-37 two years ago.
In 2018, Civiqs polling had independents voting Democratic 45-43. That number is 46-40 in today’s Civiqs’ polling. Among white voters, key to GOP efforts to stay in power, the Republican advantage has fallen from 54-40 in 2018 to 52-41 today.
Even among Black voters Democrats have squeezed out a few extra points, from 90-6 in 2018 to 91-4 today. Latinos went from 68-25 in 2018 to 70-23 today. It really is an across-the-board erosion in Republican strength.
And speaking of Republicans … they’ve gone from 92-5 in 2018 to 90-8 today.
This across-the-(entire)-board erosion is the reason why despite the wave election in 2018, one in which Democrats captured dozens of Trump-majority districts, Democrats are poised to pick up even more seats. Every week looks like this:
Republicans haven’t just given up trying to retake lost ground—they’re on their toes trying to defend further losses as the suburbs continue to trend strongly against them.
This is now officially an “anchor election.” The question isn’t “will Democrats win?” Absent something that would dramatically reshape the race, it’s pretty clear where things are headed. The question is “how big will the Democratic victory be?”
Democrats are riding three straight years of electoral gains. In the presidential race, we have states like Alaska and Montana, and maybe even South Carolina, entering the battlefield. Iowa and Ohio already did. (And they should be safely red.) Trump is trying to scare white suburban women back into the GOP fold, and failing miserably. He simply can’t do (or doesn’t want to do) what he needs to turn his cratering campaign around. I wrote back in early June that Republicans would lose the Senate, and the GOP’s standing has only gotten worse since then.
And the House? It just keeps getting worse and worse. And things won’t turn around for Republicans. COVID-19 deaths continue to grow as Republicans flail, both locally and in Washington, D.C.; Trump refuses to run a serious campaign, preferring to hump Confederate statues instead; and Republicans face a no-win choice between going down with the USS Trump, or risking his wrath if they attempt any separation.
So why is it an “anchor” election? Because Republicans are drowning, and it’s our job to throw them an anchor.
We have a chance to reshape American politics for a generation, but it’ll require a wholesale annihilation of the GOP. It’s not enough to win in November. We need a second consecutive wave election—an even bigger one than in 2018—to put that nail in the GOP coffin.